Inventory needs to triple to balance real estate market in Around Town

June 23, 2022

Your Weekly Construction Briefing

The British Columbia Real Estate Association has released its quarterly Economics Housing Forecast report. The report identifies the economic factors affecting British Columbia and its housing markets.

The BC Real Estate Association has released its economic forecasts for real estate in 2022 and 2023.

The housing markets of Vancouver Island are perhaps the most under supplied in all of BC.  Even with moderating demand, market conditions across the Island remain exceedingly tight and prices continue to grow at an accelerated pace. Home sales in the early months of 2022 are trending at a slightly above-average pace, while supply continues to be a significant challenge.

BCREA identifies strong economic growth in 2021, a strong rebound in the services sector, and low unemployment levels as key factors in driving Vancouver Island’s housing market. While some sectors, notably forestry, continue to struggle, the employment outlook should continue to improve as international tourism numbers normalize following COVID-19 restrictions.

In the regions outside of Victoria including Nanaimo, the inventory of homes for sale needs to approximately triple to get back to balanced market levels. MLS® average home prices are forecast to rise close to 18 per cent in 2022 in the Victoria region. In the Vancouver Island board area, the BC Real Estate Association forecasts that the average price will finish the year up 19 per cent. However, sales are also expected to fall between 17-18% below 2021’s record setting year.

The following chart compares real estate sales in 2021 against the BC Real Estate Association’s forecasts for 2022 and 2023.

Source: BCREA 2022 Second Quarter Housing Forecast.

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